Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Sigh

RealClearPolitics implies that Perriello couldn't win without Obama's coattails:
Obama's coattails - something we haven't seen at the Presidential level for quite some time - also present a problem for Democrats. Obama's candidacy drew numerous African American and college-age voters to the polls in 2008, and this likely proved critical for successful Democrats in close races such as AL-02 (Bobby Bright), VA-02 (Glen Nye) and VA-05 (Tom Perriello). These voters may still turn out in 2010 without Obama at the top of the ballot, and Obama may decide to expend enough political capital on 2010 to place himself virtually at the top of the ballot (assuming he has capital to spend at that point). (emphasis mine)
If you believe Obama dragged Perriello to victory, then in 2010, without Obama on the ticket, Perriello will lose handily. Or so the argument goes.

Good thing, however, I reject this argument outright. I'll be a broken record soon enough.

6 comments:

Katie said...

Oh my goodness. Make the stupid stop.

If you like revisionist history, then yes, Rep. Perriello won on Obama's Change-colored coattails and will need nothing short of a miracle and/or untimely death of his opponent to win re-election. Luckily (and clearly, for those involved or paying attention), that's not the case.

It is true that it's going to take hard work to get re-elected. Rep. Perriello has already faced a good deal of Republican opposition in the 5 months he's been in office. But to suggest that he can't win without Obama is simply ridiculous.

I wish people would learn how to read an electoral performance map before they come out with this silliness.

Katie said...

Also, for some reason I read that "Perriello couldn't win without Obama's entrails." Entrails. Grisly.

Darren Staley said...

Any polling out yet in VA-05 against either Goode or a generic candidate?

Drew said...

Darren. Not to my knowledge, but I suspect that it is way too early. Probably about this time next year.

AnonymousIsAWoman said...

While I'm not familiar with the local issues in your area, it seems to me that Perriello is doing a very good job of representing his district, including frequent visits back home, breaking with the House leadership to truly represent his constituents' wishes, and frequently attending public events and listening to those whom he represents.

If he continues to do this and provides high quality constituent service in his district, he will win re-election. Of course, he will have to work for it, but he seems to understand how to truly serve his district.

James said...

We have been over this so many times. Representative Perriello won narrowly on his own, if there was any coattailing it was in the opposite direction, because Congressman Perriello was seen as a progressive that had many of our valuses that were not necessarily shared by the DNC or President Obama. The truth is simple both the President and the Congressman won, bringing in more blue votes than Blue candidates before 2008. That is good enough, stop trying to soil the image by what ifs and perhaps this or that.