Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Gubernatorial poll: Regional cross-tabs

Reader Roland the HTG pointed out the regional breakdowns in a newly released gubernatorial poll, which I thought was worth sharing. Yesterday, Public Policy Polling released a poll surveying the current gubernatorial race (full results here). By now you have probably read the important results, but here you go if you haven't:

Governor Base
Creigh Deeds 11%
Terry McAuliffe 18%
Brian Moran 18%
Undecided 53%

But when you break it down regionally - by area codes - one result is very intriguing:

Governor Base 276 434 540 703 757 804
Creigh Deeds 11% 8% 20% 19% 3% 6% 23%
Terry McAuliffe 18% 28% 4% 21% 14% 22% 24%
Brian Moran 18% 0% 13% 11% 34% 5% 11%
Undecided 53% 64% 63% 49% 49% 67% 41%

Deeds is playing well in his home turf (parts of 434 and 540) and Moran is playing well in his (703). Now, I live in Henry County which is part of the eastern perimeter of the 276 area code, an area code which covers all of South West Virginia. So, my eyes naturally gravitated to that region. Several things strike me about these results. Off the top, Brian Moran has zero support according to this survey, out of 40 respondents (4% of the 998 total respondents). Also, McAuliffe is smoking here, relatively speaking, which is surprising since Rep. Boucher has endorsed Deeds. Since I am unaware of McAuliffe's campaign strategy in the region - i.e., no television ads are airing - I wonder if his strength in this region is somehow related to Hillary Clinton's dominance of the region during the VA Primaries (see primary results map here). Given McAuliffe's close relationship to the Clintons, is the region positively associating the former with the latter? Who knows. It's just a thought.

1 comment:

aznew said...

The results of this poll really left me scratching my head. 0% support in an area code? Can Creigh Deeds really have 3% support in NoVA, while Brian Moran has 34%? I mean, Creigh got 56% of the vote up there in 2005. How much of that is name recognition of his much better-known brother (when I ask friends up in NoVa about Brian Moran, they always think I am talking about Jim). Perhaps it is the methodology -- it is a taped poll and you respond by pressing buttons on the phone. I really don't know.

I am also reminded of how Tom Perriello barely seemed to register on some of the early SUSA polls, although someone on the campaign explained to me that the real insight into that poll was it showed ow soft Virgil's support was. And that turned out to be exactly right.

The number of undecideds stand out on this poll. We talk about it because it is the only poll available to us, but I really don't know what to make of it or whether to trust it.