Thursday, June 11, 2009

Republicans Hope 2009 Sets Up Strong 2010 in VA

Here is an article by The Hill on how this year's gubernatorial race could help set up next year's congressional races. As such, Republicans are hoping this year's election will be seen as a referendum of Obama (sigh), thus electing Bob McDonnell and laying the groundwork to unseat the Democratic freshmen congressmen (Nye, Perriello, Connolly). Money quote:
Republicans, in particular, would like revenge against Perriello, who upset six-term Rep. Virgil Goode in one of the closest elections of 2008.

The GOP also think they have a good shot at unseating Nye, and some say he could overtake Perriello as the party’s No. 1 target in the state. Nye knocked off two-term Rep. Thelma Drake last year by five points in a district that barely went to Obama.

If Republicans sense a trend breaking their way, they’ll add Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly to their target list. But they admit it could be a long shot.
They highlight that the Fifth District was cut for strict Republican incumbency, a matter that I would nuance. Yes, in 2001, the district had a strong Republican majority, but with the influx of population in the strong urban areas, like Charlottesville/Albemarle and the Roanoke suburbs, this district, while still perhaps Republican-leaning, no longer steadfastly votes for a single party, if they ever did (the truth, naturally, is more complex). Neglecting this demographic trend, the article states:
Perriello’s district, warned James Madison University political scientist Bob Roberts, was gerrymandered so it would always be held by a Republican. “There is no reason they wouldn’t take back this district,” he said.
But Perriello outperformed Obama in the district, is part of the DCCC's Frontline program, and "has launched aggressive outreach and fundraising programs," seen in his last quarter's haul. In terms of Republican candidate recruitment, this part is very interesting on several levels:
If Goode passes on the race, and some Republicans believe he will, the GOP is excited about either Virginia Del. Rob Bell or Virginia state Sen. Robert Hurt. Bell has met with the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). And Hurt said he would only consider the race if Goode opts to stay out of it.
Most, that I've talked to at least, think Goode is going to run, but also, this nugget officially gives voice to long-standing rumors of other potential candidates, namely Bell and Hurt. In a similar vein, recruitment efforts against Nye are also underway by national Republicans, but seriously challenging Connolly, they admit, is a pipe-dream, given that district's Democratic strength.

If Republicans think Rep. Perriello is easy pickins, they are in for a rude awakening. As for now, let's take it one election at a time, but naturally, strong campaigning, activism, and turnout for Deeds/Wagner/Shannon will only help strengthen our chances of retaining these congressional seats next cycle.


Anonymous said...

I'm not so sure that beating Tom is the slam dunk the Repubs think it will be. NOBODY can outwork Tom or out-smartwork him. He's planting seeds all over the district... articulating big ideas, responding to specific local concerns, and already starting to bring home the bacon. I have to think that won't be forgotten on election day.

And reality ... Read Morecheck: it is also dumb, dumb, dumb for a district to elect someone of the minority party to the House... thus assuring their local priorities have no support or influence in Congress. The Dems will control the House for years to come, and Tom could be a rising star.

But people often vote against their own best interests, so who knows?

Anonymous said...

Republicans can dream does not matter if their candidate is Goode and not so Goode.

Anonymous said...

Virgil is going to win and you are dreaming if you think Tom has any chance he will be a 1 term man nothing more.

Anonymous said...

Tom does have big ideas big spending ideas that Va can not afford.

Anonymous said...

Poor Tom he does not realize how much Obama and Warner helped him he will understand in November 2010.

AnonymousIsAWoman said...

So many anonymouses here. So much tough talk from some of them. And so much wishful thinking.

2010 will be a tough race, but Tom is building good will and paying attention to his district. Since I am not in that area, I don't know the state of his constituent service, but he appears to spend a lot of time making appearances at local events and working hard to represent his district. So, if the constituent service is also good, he has the advantage of incumbency.

I think he will be a stronger candidate in 2010, rather than a weaker one.

Anonymous said...

How many jobs that Tom promised has he delivered ?

John said...

Well, Anonymous (#1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 7?) off the top of my head, just this week Tom helped bring a new company that was located overseas making mine and IED (improvised explosive device) detection units for our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan to the Fifth District. It's about 125 new jobs (for 125 families!) helping our troops stay out of harms way. And that was just this past week.

Anonymous said...

125 jobs thats great except for the fact that we have lost alot more jobs than that in the last week

Anonymous said...

I really do not understand the Democrats way of adding since BHO passed the stimulus package he say he has created 600,000 jobs but we have lost over 2 million, is that adding jobs please sombody explain this to me im confused

Anonymous said...

Tom only won by a few votes in a year that Democrats dominated i really think it is going to be alot harder for Tom to keep his seat that you think